The 2026 holiday shopping forecasts point to a season of record spending and cautious shoppers. The National Retail Federation expects US holiday retail sales to exceed $1 trillion, yet shoppers are watching prices and seeking value more than ever. For marketers, the challenge is turning that spending into sales with offers customers trust.
This roundup brings together 2026 holiday shopping statistics from NRF, Deloitte, PwC, Adobe, Mastercard, and YouGov, covering US and UK spending, Black Friday, online shopping, and AI. It distinguishes forecasts, survey responses, and measured sales, then outlines practical priorities for small marketing teams preparing for Black Friday on November 27.
One idea runs through the data: shoppers will still spend this year, but they’ll make you prove the deal is real.
2026 holiday shopping statistics at a glance
| Statistic | Number | Source | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| US holiday retail sales, Nov to Dec | $1.013 trillion, up 4.2% | NRF, Oct 15 | Forecast |
| US retail sales growth, Nov 1 to Dec 24 | Up 5.5%, of which 2.8 percentage points is inflation | Mastercard, Sept 23 | Forecast |
| US online holiday sales, Nov to Dec | $275.1 billion, up 6.7% | Adobe, Sept 28 | Forecast |
| Planned household holiday spend | $1,654 | Deloitte, Oct 15 | Survey forecast |
| Planned gift spend per consumer | $708, down 2% | PwC, Sept 8 | Survey forecast |
| Cyber Week online sales, Nov 26 to 30 | $47.5 billion, up 7.4% | Adobe | Forecast |
| Cyber Monday online sales, Nov 30 | $15.1 billion, up 6.2% | Adobe | Forecast |
| Black Friday online sales, Nov 27 | $12.9 billion, up 9.2% | Adobe | Forecast |
| Shoppers who say the economy will affect their plans | 56% | NRF, Oct 20 | Survey |
| Shoppers starting before November | 43% | NRF, Oct 20 | Survey |
| AI traffic to US retail sites | Up 130% year over year | Adobe | Forecast |
| Consumers planning to use AI for holiday shopping | 29%, up from 22% | PwC | Survey |
| Most-wanted gift | Gift cards, 47% | NRF, Oct 20 | Survey |
| UK adults planning to spend more vs. less on Christmas | 25% vs 21% | PwC UK, Sept 14 | Survey |
All dates refer to 2026. NRF and Adobe cover the period from November 1 to December 31; Mastercard covers November 1 to December 24.
How much will Americans spend during the 2026 holiday season?
NRF forecasts that US holiday retail sales will reach $1.013 trillion in November and December 2026, up 4.2% from 2025. The forecast excludes automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants and is based on economic modeling rather than a consumer survey.
The Mastercard Economics Institute, drawing on SpendingPulse insights, forecasts 5.5% year-over-year growth in US retail sales excluding gas and autos from November 1 to December 24, 2026. Of that increase, 2.8 percentage points are expected to come from inflation. Roughly half of the projected sales growth therefore reflects higher prices rather than a greater volume of purchases.
Deloitte’s 2026 Holiday Retail Survey of 4,000 US consumers puts average planned household holiday spending at $1,654. This includes retail purchases and holiday activities, not just gifts. The figure reflects spending intentions, not actual purchases.
PwC’s Holiday Outlook 2026, based on a June survey of 4,093 US consumers, puts average planned gift spending at $708, down 2% from 2025. Unlike Deloitte’s household total, this figure covers gifts only. PwC describes gift budgets as relatively resilient despite a fall in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index from 60.7 in June 2025 to 49.5 in June 2026.
The 2025 comparison needs care. NRF’s January 2026 Retail Monitor release reported 4.1% holiday sales growth based on card transaction data. Its October 2026 forecast release instead lists 2025 holiday sales at $972 billion, up 3.1%. These figures come from different data series and should not be treated as interchangeable. Using the 2025 baseline in NRF’s October release, holiday sales are forecast to cross $1 trillion in 2026.
Cautious holiday shoppers are looking for value
More than half of US holiday shoppers say the economy will affect their spending plans, with many planning to seek out sales, compare prices, and use coupons. In NRF’s survey of 8,094 adults conducted October 1–7, 56% said economic conditions would influence their holiday spending. Among those shoppers, 43% plan to shop sales more often, 31% to compare prices online more often, and 29% to use coupons more often.
When do people start holiday shopping in 2026?
Many shoppers start early but save most of their holiday buying for Thanksgiving weekend. NRF found that 43% of holiday shoppers planned to start browsing and buying before November, compared with 42% in 2025. Among early starters, 50% wanted to spread out their budgets, while 37% cited attractive prices and promotions. At the same time, 64% of shoppers said they were likely to wait until Thanksgiving weekend to do most of their holiday shopping.
The calendar also puts pressure on the final weeks of the season. Thanksgiving falls on November 26, followed by Cyber Monday on November 30. Mastercard’s card data from 2025 highlights the importance of late purchases: in jewelry, handbags, department stores, and cosmetics, more than 35% of in-store spending between November 22 and December 25 took place in the final week before Christmas.
Black Friday and Cyber Week 2026 statistics
Adobe forecasts $47.5 billion in US online sales during Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. That would represent a 7.4% increase from 2025 and account for 17.3% of projected online holiday spending. Cyber Monday (November 30) is expected to be the biggest online shopping day at $15.1 billion, followed by Black Friday (November 27) at $12.9 billion and Thanksgiving Day (November 26) at $6.9 billion. Black Friday sales are forecast to grow faster than Cyber Monday sales, at 9.2% versus 6.2%. Adobe attributes part of that growth to discounts on TVs, apparel, and appliances, which are expected to be deepest on Black Friday.
Adobe expects discounts of up to 14% off listed prices in early November, up to 21% just before Thanksgiving, and up to 30% during Cyber Week, with December discounts reaching 10% to 15%. These levels vary by product category and timing. Purchases made using buy now, pay later (BNPL) services are forecast to total $21.3 billion in November and December, including $1.09 billion on Cyber Monday alone.
For context, NRF’s consumer survey estimated that a record 202.9 million people shopped during the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday in 2025, up from 197 million in 2024. An estimated 134.9 million shopped online and 129.5 million shopped in stores. These groups overlap, so the figures should not be added together. Cyber Monday attracted 75.9 million online shoppers, compared with 64.4 million in 2024. Shoppers reported average holiday-related spending of $337.86 over the weekend, including $225.74 on gifts.
For small brands, the practical takeaway is not to match the deepest advertised discounts automatically. Choose an offer that fits your margins and make it easy to understand: what is included, how much customers save, and when it ends. Consider giving email subscribers early access. For guidance on campaign timing, see our Thanksgiving and Black Friday email tips.
Online, mobile, and in-store holiday shopping trends
Online holiday sales are forecast to grow faster than in-store sales, but physical stores remain important for choosing gifts. Adobe expects US online holiday spending to reach $275.1 billion, up 6.7% from 2025. Mobile purchases are projected to account for 57.4% of that total, compared with 56.4% last year. Mastercard separately forecasts online sales growth of 11% and in-store growth of 3.6%, which would be the strongest pace for physical stores since 2022.
Consumer surveys highlight the different roles of shopping channels. In NRF’s survey, 53% of holiday shoppers plan to shop online, followed by grocery stores and discount stores at 43% each, and department stores at 42%. PwC found that 52% of consumers expect to visit stores to decide what gifts to buy, compared with 42% using search engines, 29% using social media, and 14% using AI tools. For purchases, 60% expect to buy gifts in stores, 38% on brand or retailer websites, 9% through social media, and 4% through AI tools. These figures describe planned channel use, not shares of total spending.
Adobe expects social media and affiliates or partners, including influencers, to see the fastest growth in their shares of online revenue. Social media’s revenue share is forecast to grow 17%, while the share attributed to affiliates and partners is expected to grow 12%. These are relative increases in revenue share, not percentage-point gains. For small brands, the practical priority is to keep product information consistent wherever customers discover and compare products. Make prices, stock availability, and pickup options easy to find, and check that product pages and checkout work well on mobile.
AI holiday shopping statistics: growing use, different adoption measures
AI is becoming a more common shopping research tool, but using it to explore products is different from buying through it. Adobe forecasts a 130% year-over-year increase in traffic from AI tools to US retail sites during the holiday season, with a 159% increase on Thanksgiving Day. These figures measure visits referred by AI tools, not purchases completed through them. In Adobe’s July survey of 5,000 consumers, 77% of respondents who had used AI for online shopping said it increased their purchase confidence, while 69% said they were less likely to return a purchase. These are self-reported perceptions, not measured changes in return rates.
Traffic growth does not show how many shoppers use AI. PwC found that 29% of consumers plan to use AI for holiday shopping, up from 22% in 2025. Among those using AI for ideas, 64% still open a separate tab to make a purchase rather than following the tool’s link. Deloitte found that 39% of respondents identified generative AI as their main tool for at least one holiday shopping task. The surveys measure different uses of AI, so their adoption figures should not be treated as directly comparable.
A separate NRF survey shows how consumers used AI for Halloween shopping. In September, 47% said they were using AI platforms or tools to support their shopping plans. Reported uses included brainstorming and planning ideas (34%) and seeking recommendations during product research (32%). These findings concern Halloween shopping, not the November and December holiday season.
For small brands, the practical takeaway is to make product information clear and easy to access. Include prices, shipping deadlines, available sizes, and package contents as text on product pages, rather than only in images. This gives shoppers the details they need to compare options without relying on an AI summary.
Holiday gift preferences and top online shopping categories in 2026
Gift cards remain the most requested holiday gift in NRF’s survey: 47% of shoppers would like to receive them, followed by clothing (44%), books and other media (25%), and personal care or beauty items (24%). For small brands that offer digital gift cards, they can also provide a last-minute option once shipping deadlines have passed.
Screen-free gifts appeal to many holiday shoppers, especially Gen Z. PwC found that 64% of consumers are interested in screen-free gifts, rising to 78% among Gen Z. The appeal extends beyond physical gifts: 63% of Gen Z respondents say a shared meal matters more than a present.
Adobe forecasts that electronics and apparel will remain the largest US online holiday shopping categories, reaching $63.3 billion and $51.3 billion, respectively. That represents year-over-year growth of 5.9% for electronics and 4.7% for apparel. Furniture sales are projected to reach $33.4 billion. Among the categories highlighted in Adobe’s forecast, grocery, toys, and cosmetics are expected to grow fastest, at 10.3%, 9.6%, and 9.5%, respectively.
For brands serving younger shoppers, the finding is a reason to consider experiences alongside physical gifts, rather than assuming that another product is always the preferred option.
A note on methodology
The forecasts in this article measure different parts of the holiday shopping season. NRF covers retail sales excluding automobile dealers, gas stations, and restaurants in November and December. Mastercard excludes gas and autos but ends its reporting period on December 24. Adobe measures online sales only. These differences in coverage and timing mean the growth forecasts should not be used interchangeably.
Sales growth also reflects prices, not just purchase volume. NRF’s forecast is not adjusted for inflation, while Mastercard explicitly estimates inflation’s contribution at 2.8 percentage points.
PwC’s Holiday Outlook page displays conflicting gift spending figures: an 11% decline in a callout and a 2% decline to $708 in the main 2026 findings. This article uses the latter and flags the discrepancy rather than treating the two figures as equivalent.
UK holiday shopping statistics for 2026
UK consumer sentiment has improved, but concerns about everyday costs remain widespread. PwC UK’s August survey of 2,070 adults found that its Consumer Sentiment Index had risen to +1, its first positive reading since September 2021. For the first Christmas since the pandemic, more respondents planned to increase their spending on Christmas shopping and celebrations (25%) than reduce it (21%). By mid-August, 14% had already started Christmas shopping, while a further 16% planned to start earlier than in 2025. Despite this improvement, 85% remained worried about the rising cost of everyday items.
YouGov’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2026 report for Great Britain, published on October 8, found that 23% of respondents planned to shop during these sales events. Among likely shoppers, 47% said it was difficult to tell whether discounts were genuine. Planned AI use among likely Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers rose from 19% in 2025 to 34% in 2026.
How to use these holiday shopping statistics in November
If you’re running holiday marketing on your own, use these statistics to choose where to focus over the next few weeks. The findings suggest four practical priorities, which you can adapt to your audience, margins, and delivery options.
Make the deal easy to evaluate. Nearly half of likely Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers in Great Britain say it’s difficult to tell whether discounts are genuine. Show the sale price, a real reference price and a clear end date. That gives shoppers enough to judge how much they’re actually saving, and it will do more than a big percentage nobody trusts.
Prepare for two key shopping windows. Adobe forecasts $47.5 billion in US online spending during Cyber Week, November 26 to 30. Mastercard’s 2025 data also highlights the importance of the final week before Christmas: in categories including jewelry and cosmetics, it accounted for more than a third of in-store spending between November 22 and December 25. Set your delivery deadlines now, and prepare last-minute messages for December 18 onward, adjusted to your actual shipping and pickup options.
Test experience bundles and digital gift cards. NRF found that 47% of holiday shoppers would like to receive gift cards, while PwC found that 63% of Gen Z respondents value a shared meal more than a physical present. If it suits your audience, test a product paired with a class, tasting, or other shared activity. If you offer digital gift cards, keep them visible once physical gifts can no longer arrive in time.
Make product pages easy to understand. Display prices, delivery deadlines, available sizes, and package contents as text, not only in images. Keep these details consistent across your website and product listings so shoppers can compare options without relying on an AI summary.
Choose the actions that address your biggest immediate constraint rather than turning every statistic into a campaign. Our guide on how to prioritize marketing as a team of one
explains how to identify that constraint and choose the smallest useful action.
FAQ
How much will Americans spend on the 2026 holidays?
The NRF forecasts US holiday retail sales of $1.013 trillion in November and December 2026, up 4.2% from 2025. Mastercard expects retail sales excluding gas and autos to grow 5.5% from November 1 to December 24, with 2.8 points of that from inflation. Adobe forecasts $275.1 billion in online sales, up 6.7%.
What are consumers planning to spend on holiday shopping in 2026?
Deloitte’s 2026 survey puts average planned household holiday spending at $1,654. PwC puts average planned gift spending per consumer at $708, down 2% from 2025. The figures cover different spending categories and units, so they should not be compared directly.
How much will be spent on Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2026?
Adobe forecasts $12.9 billion in US online sales on Black Friday (November 27), up 9.2%, and $15.1 billion on Cyber Monday (November 30), up 6.2%. Cyber Week as a whole, Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, is expected to reach $47.5 billion online, or 17.3% of the season.
What share of shoppers plan to use AI for holiday shopping in 2026?
It depends on the survey. PwC found 29% of US consumers plan to use AI in their holiday shopping, up from 22% in 2025. In Deloitte’s survey, 39% call generative AI their main tool for at least one shopping task. In Great Britain, YouGov found that 34% of likely Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers plan to use AI, up from 19% last year.
The short version
Holiday spending will grow in 2026, but much of the growth is prices, and shoppers are comparing more before they buy. Plan for Cyber Week and the last week before Christmas, make every offer easy to check, and pair products with experiences or gift cards.
Nova Express Resources
Planning your holiday campaigns? These guides can help you turn the shopping trends into practical marketing actions:
Boost Your Thanksgiving & Black Friday Sales: Effective Email Marketing Tips
Christmas Email Marketing: Best Templates
How to Prioritize Marketing as a Team of One
AI Marketing Workflows: 7 Practical Examples for 2026
About the author
Serafima Osovitny is a Marketing Manager at Nova Express, where she focuses on digital marketing, search visibility, content strategy, and marketing workflows. She writes practical guides that help marketing teams research their audiences, develop strategies, and put their plans into action.
Explore her work at serafima.digital and follow her on X: @OSerafimaA.
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