Adobe forecasts $12.9 billion in U.S. online spending on Black Friday 2026 and $15.1 billion on Cyber Monday. Bain expects more than $85 billion in retail sales across the four-day weekend. These forecasts cover different markets, but both point to a significant promotional period for retailers.
For marketers, the useful questions go beyond the size of the opportunity. Which products should lead Friday’s campaign? Does Monday need a different offer? And could delivery conditions make an otherwise attractive discount less compelling?
For the wider seasonal picture, see the 2026 holiday shopping statistics.
Updated November 11, 2026. Black Friday and Cyber Monday have not happened yet. The spending figures below are forecasts, not final sales results.
Black Friday 2026 Statistics at a Glance
Unless otherwise stated, these figures refer to the United States.
| Metric | 2026 figure | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Black Friday online spending | $12.9 billion | Adobe forecast, up 9.2% year over year. |
| Cyber Monday online spending | $15.1 billion | Adobe forecast, up 6.2% year over year. |
| Cyber Week online spending | $47.5 billion | Adobe forecast for Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, up 7.4%. |
| Black Friday through Cyber Monday retail sales | More than $85 billion | Bain forecast for the four-day period, up 8.75%. |
| Consumers planning to shop Black Friday | 64% | Bain survey of U.S. consumers, compared with 55% in 2025. |
| Consumers planning to shop Cyber Monday | 44% | Bain survey, compared with 41% in 2025. |
| Consumers planning to shop either event | 70% | Bain survey, compared with 64% in 2025. |
| Peak Cyber Week discounts | Up to 30% off listed prices | Adobe forecast: expected discounts vary by category. |
The sales totals should not be added together. Adobe’s Cyber Week forecast already includes Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Bain’s figure covers a broader retail market over four days, rather than Adobe’s five-day online shopping period.
When Are Black Friday and Cyber Monday in 2026?
Black Friday falls on November 27, 2026. Cyber Monday follows on November 30. Adobe defines Cyber Week as the five days from Thanksgiving, November 26, through Cyber Monday.
| Event | Date |
|---|---|
| Thanksgiving | November 26, 2026 |
| Black Friday | November 27, 2026 |
| Cyber Monday | November 30, 2026 |
| Cyber Week | November 26 to 30, 2026 |
These dates define different reporting windows. A headline about “Black Friday weekend” may cover Friday through Monday, while “Cyber Week” may also include Thanksgiving. Check the period before comparing sales figures.
Black Friday vs. Cyber Monday: Which Day Will Be Bigger?
For U.S. online spending, Adobe expects Cyber Monday to be larger: $15.1 billion compared with $12.9 billion on Black Friday. However, Black Friday is forecast to grow faster, at 9.2% year over year versus 6.2%.
Bain’s broader retail analysis, which draws on proprietary credit card data from Pyxis, points to Black Friday as the leading sales day of the holiday season.
The findings are not contradictory. Adobe’s comparison concerns e-commerce; Bain examines a broader retail market.
| Comparison | Black Friday | Cyber Monday |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast U.S. online sales | $12.9 billion | $15.1 billion |
| Forecast online sales growth | 9.2% | 6.2% |
Sales totals and growth rates are Adobe forecasts for U.S. online spending.
For campaign planning, the distinction matters most when setting expectations. A larger online shopping day does not automatically make it the better sales opportunity for your business.
Which Products Are Expected to Have the Best Discounts?
According to Adobe’s 2026 holiday forecast, the deepest discounts are expected to fall on different days depending on the product category.
| Product category | Expected peak discount | Expected best day |
|---|---|---|
| Electronics | 30% | Cyber Monday |
| Toys | 29% | Black Friday |
| TVs | 23% | Black Friday |
| Computers | 23% | Cyber Monday |
| Apparel | 23% | Black Friday |
| Sporting goods | 19% | Thanksgiving |
| Appliances | 18% | Black Friday |
| Furniture | 18% | Black Friday |
These are Adobe’s market-level forecasts relative to listed prices. They are not discount targets for individual retailers or guarantees about every product.
What this means for your campaign
Use the category outlook as context for your merchandising calendar, not as a reason to match every projected discount.
Before setting an offer, work out what remains after product costs, discounting, acquisition, fulfillment, and likely returns. Then decide which products deserve the most visibility on each day.
For a store selling several categories, that may mean changing featured products between Friday and Monday. For a specialist retailer, it may mean keeping the same offer but changing the supporting content: a product comparison first, a demonstration next, and a clear availability or delivery update later.
If you need ideas for turning those priorities into emails, explore these email marketing examples. Use them as a starting point for structuring your message around a clear offer and a specific action.
Change the message when you have useful information to add, not simply because the calendar has moved forward.
More Shoppers Plan to Participate, but Intentions Are Not Sales
Bain reports that 64% of surveyed U.S. consumers plan to shop Black Friday, compared with 55% in 2025. For Cyber Monday, planned participation rises from 41% to 44%. Overall, 70% plan to shop one or both events, up from 64%.
These figures indicate interest in the promotional period. They do not show how much each respondent will spend or whether every intended purchase will happen.
The Friday and Monday percentages also overlap: someone can plan to shop on both days. Adding 64% and 44% would therefore misrepresent participation. Bain reports the combined audience separately at 70%.
Make the offer easy to evaluate
A useful response to increased shopping interest is to remove uncertainty around the purchase.
Your main offer page should answer:
- Which products are included?
- What price will the customer actually pay?
- Is a code required?
- Are there exclusions or minimum order requirements?
- When does the offer end?
- What will delivery cost?
- What are the return conditions?
Keep these answers consistent across the advertisement, landing page, product page, and checkout. A customer should not need to compare several emails to reconstruct the current terms.
The Shopping Window Starts Before Black Friday
Adobe forecasts discounts of up to 14% off listed prices in early November, up to 21% just before Thanksgiving, and up to 30% during Cyber Week.
Customers may be comparing deals before your main promotion begins.
The lead-up does not have to be a sequence of increasingly urgent sales messages. It can help customers decide what they need:
- A comparison guide can explain differences between similar products.
- A demonstration can show how a product works.
- A sizing or compatibility guide can resolve a practical concern.
- A delivery explainer can clarify available services and timelines.
To place these messages within your wider seasonal schedule, use the 2026 holiday marketing calendar to map out preparation, launch, and follow-up dates.
When the promotion launches, the sales message can focus on the offer rather than trying to explain the product and every purchase condition at once.
If you run early access or several promotional stages, state what changes between them. Avoid describing Friday as the final opportunity if the same deal is already scheduled to return on Monday.
Not Every Black Friday Purchase Is a Gift
Adobe expects Cyber Week deals to encourage purchases of everyday essentials as well as traditional holiday products. Its forecasts include increases of 210% for clothing basics, 150% for personal hygiene products, 113% for baby products, 93% for pet products, and 49% for household cleaning items, compared with average sales levels in September 2026.
The baseline matters: these are comparisons with September sales levels, not year-over-year growth rates.
For businesses selling everyday products, the campaign angle may be replenishment rather than gifting. Useful information could include:
- Price per unit.
- Quantity in a multipack.
- What a bundle contains.
- How the bundle compares with buying items separately.
- Any product-specific storage or shelf-life information.
There is no need to force an ordinary household purchase into a gift narrative. The value may simply be a clear, worthwhile opportunity to restock.
Delivery and Returns Deserve Space Beside the Discount
DHL’s international research finds that one in three Black Friday shoppers identifies the shipping-options stage as the point where they are most likely to abandon a purchase. It also reports that 81% would abandon without their preferred delivery options, while 74% would abandon without their preferred return options.
These findings come from surveys conducted between December 15, 2025, and February 11, 2026. They describe self-reported behavior and preferences across international markets. They do not represent observed abandonment rates for U.S. stores during Black Friday 2026.
They are still a useful prompt to review your own delivery and return options before launch.
What to show before checkout
| Delivery information | Return information |
|---|---|
| Charges and free-shipping threshold | Return window |
| Available methods and collection options | Promotional exclusions and policy changes |
| Estimated dispatch and arrival times | Who pays for return shipping |
| Geographic restrictions and known delays | How to start a return |
Distinguish dispatch time from delivery time. “Ships within two business days” and “arrives within two business days” make different promises.
If your promotion creates unusual conditions, such as delayed dispatch for a popular product, show that information near the purchase decision rather than leaving it only in a general policy page.
Do not promise options your business cannot reliably provide. The goal is to make the actual offer understandable, including the conditions that might affect someone’s decision to buy.
How to Read These Statistics Without Mixing Them Up
| Source | What it contributes | Main limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Adobe | U.S. online spending and discount forecasts | Forecasts are not final results and do not represent all retail channels. |
| Bain | Broader U.S. retail forecasts and shopping intentions | Survey intentions are not completed purchases; its retail scope differs from Adobe’s. |
| DHL | International research on shopping behavior and preferences | The survey predates Black Friday 2026 and does not measure this year’s event outcomes. |
Before reusing a figure, check its geography, reporting period, measurement, and comparison baseline.
A Black Friday Campaign Checklist for Small Teams
The following checklist translates the research into planning questions. It is a practical interpretation, not a prediction of campaign performance.
| Decision | What to check before launch |
|---|---|
| Product selection | Which products remain worthwhile to sell after discounts and other costs? |
| Friday and Monday priorities | Should the featured products change, or should the same offer continue? |
| Offer clarity | Are price, eligibility, exclusions, and end time explained in one place? |
| Delivery | Can customers see costs, methods, and realistic timelines before paying? |
| Returns | Are promotional return conditions clear before purchase? |
| Purchase journey | Does the campaign link lead to the correct product and price, and can the order be completed on a phone? |
| Message sequence | Does each message answer a different customer question? |
| Measurement | Will you review revenue alongside product, advertising, fulfillment, and return costs? |
For a small team, a focused campaign can be easier to execute consistently than several overlapping promotions. Choose an offer you can explain, fulfill, and evaluate clearly.
FAQ
How much will shoppers spend on Black Friday 2026?
Adobe forecasts $12.9 billion in U.S. online spending on Black Friday, up 9.2% year over year. This is an e-commerce forecast, not a final result or a total for all retail channels.
Is Cyber Monday expected to be bigger than Black Friday?
For U.S. online sales, yes: Adobe forecasts $15.1 billion on Cyber Monday versus $12.9 billion on Black Friday. Bain expects Black Friday to remain the leading sales day in its broader retail analysis. The answer depends on the channels being measured.
Should retailers save their best discounts for Cyber Monday?
Not necessarily. Adobe expects the best discounts for electronics and computers on Cyber Monday, but several other categories are forecast to reach their deepest discounts on Black Friday. These are market expectations, not instructions for individual retailers.
Your own pricing decision should reflect margins, stock, fulfillment capacity, and the offer already communicated to customers.
Are final Black Friday 2026 sales figures available?
Not as of November 11, 2026. Black Friday falls on November 27 and Cyber Monday on November 30. The spending estimates in this article should remain labeled as forecasts until results are available.
Turn the Forecasts Into a Clearer Offer
Adobe expects Black Friday to grow faster online, while Cyber Monday remains the larger e-commerce day. Bain expects the four-day retail weekend to outpace its forecast for the holiday season overall.
Those expectations help establish the importance of the period. They do not determine which discount your business should offer or how much it will earn.
Before adding another countdown, check the purchase decision itself: the product, the price, the full delivery cost, the likely arrival date, and the return conditions.
A campaign does not need to repeat every market trend. A campaign does not need to repeat every market trend. It needs to make a worthwhile offer easy to understand and deliver what it promises.
Nova Express Resources
Planning your holiday campaigns? Explore these guides for email ideas, campaign planning, and practical marketing workflows.
Holiday Campaigns and Planning
- Boost Your Thanksgiving & Black Friday Sales: Effective Email Marketing Tips
- Christmas Email Marketing: Best Templates
- 2027 Holiday Marketing Calendar
Marketing Priorities and Strategy
AI Tools and Workflows
- AI Marketing Workflows: 7 Practical Examples for 2026
- Best AI Video Generators for Marketers in 2026
- AI Tools for Marketers Guide
About the author
Serafima Osovitny is a Marketing Manager at Nova Express, where she focuses on digital marketing, search visibility, content strategy, and marketing workflows. She writes practical guides that help marketing teams research their audiences, develop strategies, and put their plans into action.
Explore her work at serafima.digital and follow her on X: @OSerafimaA.
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